The diplomatic relationship between India and Canada, which has been characterized by decades of cooperation in trade, education, and cultural exchange, is currently facing one of its most significant crises in recent history. This downturn in relations stems from serious allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in September 2023, accusing Indian agents of involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader, in Canada. India has denied the accusations, and both countries have since engaged in retaliatory diplomatic actions, including the expulsion of diplomats and the suspension of visa services.
A History of Strong, Yet Sometimes Strained, Ties
The relationship between India and Canada has long been shaped by their shared democratic values, Commonwealth membership, and substantial economic ties. Diplomatic relations were established in 1947, shortly after India’s independence, and over the following decades, the two countries worked together on developmental initiatives, particularly in the 1950s and 60s, when international peacekeeping efforts were at the forefront of their cooperation.
However, moments of tension are not new. India’s 1974 nuclear test, which utilized Canadian-supplied nuclear technology, caused a significant strain in relations, and in 1985, the bombing of Air India Flight 182, linked to Sikh extremists in Canada, marked a particularly dark chapter in bilateral relations.
After several periods of estrangement, including Canada’s imposition of sanctions following India’s 1998 nuclear tests, the two countries gradually rebuilt trust. By 2009, nuclear cooperation resumed, and high-profile visits from both nations’ leaders underscored a renewed commitment to stronger economic and energy partnerships. However, despite these efforts, underlying tensions persisted, particularly around the issue of Sikh separatism.
Sikh Separatism: A Point of Contention
The presence of a large Sikh diaspora in Canada, including activists advocating for the creation of an independent Sikh state of Khalistan, has complicated relations between Ottawa and New Delhi for decades. India has long expressed concerns about the activities of pro-Khalistan groups in Canada, particularly in the aftermath of the 1985 Air India bombing, which was one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in Canadian history.
The current crisis, ignited by Trudeau’s accusations of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s assassination, has exacerbated these tensions. Nijjar, a vocal advocate for Khalistan, was killed in British Columbia in June 2023. India had previously labeled him as a terrorist, and his death has been a focal point for Sikh activists in Canada.
India’s swift denial of the allegations as “absurd” and its expulsion of a Canadian diplomat was met with reciprocal action from Ottawa. By October 2023, the situation had escalated further, with India suspending visa services for Canadian citizens, significantly affecting people-to-people ties and educational exchanges, a cornerstone of bilateral relations.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
While the diplomatic fallout has garnered widespread attention, the economic consequences of this row are equally significant. India and Canada enjoy robust trade relations, with bilateral merchandise trade valued at over CAD $10 billion annually. Canada is also a major supplier of uranium to India, crucial for its nuclear energy needs.
Experts warn that a prolonged diplomatic freeze could damage these economic ties, particularly if political rhetoric continues to overshadow practical cooperation in trade, technology, and energy. Both nations have a vested interest in maintaining these partnerships, but the current impasse presents a formidable challenge.
Furthermore, Canada’s membership in international organizations such as the G7 and NATO, and India’s increasing prominence on the global stage, mean that the dispute has the potential to impact broader geopolitical relationships. If Canada were to escalate the issue in international forums, it could complicate India’s relations with other Western allies, particularly those who view India as a strategic partner in Asia.
A Precarious Moment in Bilateral Relations
This is not the first time India and Canada have encountered friction, but the current situation is one of the most severe. The diplomatic clash comes on the heels of other contentious moments, such as Canadian support for Indian farmers protesting agricultural reforms in 2020-2021, which New Delhi saw as interference in its internal affairs.
While the assassination allegations have brought these tensions to the forefront, they also risk overshadowing the long-standing cultural and familial ties that have connected the two nations. Canada is home to one of the largest Indian diasporas in the world, particularly from the Sikh community, and the deep-rooted connections between citizens of both countries remain an important element of the bilateral relationship.
What Lies Ahead?
The future of India-Canada relations depends heavily on how both countries choose to navigate this diplomatic crisis. Analysts suggest that de-escalation strategies, including behind-the-scenes diplomatic engagement, are essential to avoid long-term damage to trade, education, and political cooperation. Economic interdependence remains a key factor that could motivate both nations to seek common ground despite their differences.
However, the complexities of the Sikh separatist issue, along with growing nationalist sentiments on both sides, pose significant challenges to any potential resolution. The risk of extremist activities escalating in the aftermath of Nijjar’s assassination cannot be ruled out, further straining Canada’s domestic handling of pro-Khalistan activism and its foreign relations with India.
In the short term, both sides appear entrenched, with no clear path to a resolution. As international attention grows, the outcome of this diplomatic standoff could have implications far beyond the borders of India and Canada, shaping future interactions between these two important democracies.
