As Canada enters the final months of 2024, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future as the leader of the Liberal Party hangs in the balance. Facing waning public support, internal party divisions, and the collapse of a key political alliance, Trudeau’s leadership is under growing scrutiny. Mounting pressures, both within his party and from a resurgent Conservative opposition, suggest that the Liberals may be on the brink of a major political shift.

Declining Popularity and Economic Challenges

Once seen as a progressive torchbearer on the global stage, Trudeau has faced a steep decline in approval ratings. His earlier successes in areas such as gender equality, climate action, and expanding social programs have been overshadowed by pressing economic concerns. Rising inflation, housing affordability issues, and an overstretched healthcare system have left many Canadians dissatisfied with his government’s performance.

By mid-2024, polls indicated the Liberal Party’s national support had fallen to approximately 22.5%, a significant drop from the party’s standing in the 2021 election, where Trudeau secured a minority government. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party now enjoys a 17-point lead in public opinion polls. The Conservatives have capitalized on the economic frustrations of middle-class Canadians, focusing their messaging on inflation and cost-of-living crises—issues that have eroded much of the Liberal Party’s previous support base.

NDP Alliance Collapse Heightens Vulnerability

The political landscape shifted dramatically in September 2024, when the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended its governing agreement with the Liberals. This alliance, forged after the 2021 election, allowed the Liberals to push forward key progressive policies, including the expansion of dental care. However, its collapse has left Trudeau’s minority government vulnerable, raising the specter of an early election.

Without the NDP’s support, the Liberals are now at greater risk of facing a non-confidence vote in Parliament, which could trigger a snap election. Such a scenario is increasingly likely given the growing momentum behind the Conservatives and Trudeau’s weakening hold over his own party. By-election losses in traditional Liberal strongholds, such as Toronto-St. Paul’s, have further emphasized the growing threat posed by the Conservatives.

Internal Party Dynamics: A Push for Change

Within the Liberal Party, calls for leadership change have become more pronounced. Although Trudeau maintains a core group of loyalists, many party members privately express concern about his ability to lead them to another electoral victory. This internal discontent has given rise to speculation about a leadership transition. Several high-profile figures within the party, including possible successors, have begun positioning themselves for a post-Trudeau era.

Despite the rumblings of dissatisfaction, Trudeau has remained steadfast in his public declarations that he intends to lead the party into the next federal election. However, with party support plummeting and a potential early election looming, the pressure to step aside is likely to intensify.

Strategic Pathways Forward for the Liberals

In light of these challenges, the Liberal Party faces several critical decisions in the coming months. A leadership transition, while fraught with risks, could offer an opportunity to rejuvenate the party’s image. By presenting a fresh face and distancing itself from some of the baggage associated with Trudeau’s tenure, the party may be able to re-energize its base and appeal to disaffected voters. Key Liberal figures are already assessing potential successors, though no formal leadership challenge has yet materialized.

At the same time, the party must refocus its platform on key economic issues, particularly those impacting middle-class Canadians. Inflation, housing, and healthcare are at the forefront of public concerns, and a coherent strategy addressing these areas could help the Liberals reconnect with voters who have drifted towards the Conservatives.

Potential Risks and Opportunities

The road ahead is fraught with risks for the Liberals. The most immediate threat is the possibility of an early election, which could result in a decisive Conservative victory. Without the support of the NDP and amid rising internal divisions, the Liberals may struggle to rally in time for a snap vote. Additionally, Trudeau’s declining popularity in Quebec—once a key Liberal stronghold—further jeopardizes the party’s electoral prospects.

However, the Liberal Party also has opportunities to turn the tide. A well-managed leadership transition, coupled with a strong focus on economic recovery, could stabilize the party and bolster its chances in the next election. Rebuilding alliances, particularly with the NDP or other progressive groups, may also provide a path forward in securing support in key regions.

A Party at a Crossroads

As October 2024 unfolds, the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership remains uncertain. His once-dominant political presence has diminished amid mounting economic challenges and internal party strife. The collapse of the NDP alliance has only increased the likelihood of an early election, a scenario in which the Liberals are currently poorly positioned.

In the coming months, the Liberal Party will need to navigate these complexities carefully. Whether through a leadership change or a renewed focus on economic issues, the party’s ability to adapt will determine its fate in what could be a highly consequential election. For Trudeau, the window for maintaining his grip on power may be closing, but the next steps for his party remain pivotal in shaping the future of Canadian politics.